What's Happening in the Ukraine? (Letter 55 to Grands)

Actually, a number of things are happening there.

Events...in personal life, but especially in politics...are often overdetermined. By this we mean there are many causes for the happening.

For example, if we have a nasty family fight it might be because: we both drank too much, we have a serious disagreement about xyz, the tone was offensive, one or both of us have been carrying some grudges, one or both of us have a fragile-wounded psyche that was touched, one or both of  us carry a forgotten trauma, one or both of us are stressed and fatigued, and so forth.

Another example, the invasion of Iraq by George W. Bush was overdetermined: understandable concern for oil, an exaggerated neoconservative confidence after the collapse of the Soviet empire, strong pro-Israel sentiment, ignorance about the tribal-religious dynamics in that society, a humanitarian impulse to liberate a suffering people from a brutal dictator, but mostly (in my view) a genuine but misguided fear of weapons of mass destruction by a small group of alpha males (Cheny, Rumsfeld ) unhinged by 9/11 who misinterpreted Saddam Hussein in his bluff toward Iran and his underestimation of American willingness to attack. 

So, what's happening in the Ukraine?

1. An obscene, illegal invasion by an imperialist tyrant against a victim country.

2. A civil war, going on for decades, between the Europe-leaning western Ukraine and the Russia-leaning Eastern Ukraine.

3. A defensive reaction against a NATO perceived as intruding into the Russian sphere of influence.

4. A civilizational-cultural-religious war in which Russian Orthodoxy is reactive against the aggressive intrusion of Western, secular, cultural liberalism (sexual license) into its area.

5.Putin's perception of weakness of the Biden administration after the disgraceful abandonment of Afghanistan.

Another level of confusion and complexity of this multi-layered event: the notorious corruption of government in the Ukraine. This decadence operates on both sides of the civil divide. To make matters worse: as Vice President to Obama, Joe Biden yielded immense influence just as his son Hunter was receiving millions of dollars there for consultancy about energy. Hunter has zero expertise in this field!

Given this complexity, are we to throw up our arms in bewilderment and paralysis?

No. We do well to soberly survey the entire scene and highlight what is most important.

For simplicity of concept, I offer a quantification of my understanding. The conflict is 15% a civil war, 15% a civilizational/religious contest, 10% a defensive against NATO perceived as aggressive, 5% an opportunity grasped from a USA seen as weak; but 55% a criminal invasion. Primarily, substantially it is an intolerable aggression. The European-American consensus is sound: our moral obligation to the people of the Ukraine and the world order is to support their cause. Biden's policy has been basically sound but too little too late.

At this point in time, with the battle raging, we do well to give generously: to encourage the Ukraine and discourage Russia. But that is not an indefinite blank check. The time is fast approaching for negotiation and peace. We want the terms to benefit the victim and punish the criminal. But realism and sobriety need to prevail. 

One writer recalled that our bombing of Hiroshima/Nagasaki was the logical result of our determination to achieve unconditional surrender. We dare not apply such logic to this war. It becomes more improbable every day that an unconditional surrender can be achieved. 

The Ukrainian offensive is not going well. There appears to be a virtual stalemate. Unless there is some unexpected event, like the collapse of the Putin regime, this destructive, fatiguing, wasteful stalemate is likely to persist. A good portion of Eastern Ukraine will have to be ceded to Russia. This is not the end of the world. Many of those residents, possibly a majority, may favor Russia over the West. Putin basically lost the war. About half of his military has been destroyed by a far smaller force. David has won an immense moral victory over Goliath. The world order, the rule of law and defense of liberty has been upheld. Russia is a power in decline. 

Lets keep in mind the complexities involved here. For example, a conservative culture warrior like myself may, in the long run, decades after a truce is in place, have more in common with this genocidal gangster Putin than the spineless, faux-Catholic Biden.

Let's pray for victory by the Ukraine! Let's pray for relief for this suffering people! Let's pray for peace! Let's pray for the repentance of sinners: Putin, Biden, you and me!