Sunday, April 22, 2018
Good Decisions, Bad Consequences; Bad Decisions, Good Consequences
In a recent Blue Bloods,Jaime and partner witness a carjacking and think (mistakenly) that a child is in the car. They jump in their car, a high-speed chase (greatly discouraged, but not absolutely forbidden by NYPD) ensues with disastrous results as the car being chased hits another car, injuring a 7-year old. Defending himself before the Judge, Jaime says: "Based on what we knew, it was a good decision. Good decisions can have bad consequences." How True! And bad decisions can have good consequences! There is high irony here! You can see I have contempt for "consequentialism" as a moral philosophy. I personally have a keen sense of this irony because in my business career, inevitably,when I most applied my energy, stamina, good will and thought to my work I had disastrous results, due to circumstances beyond my control; but when I was most laid back, easy going and relaxed in my performance, I often received accolades and compliments, due to circumstances beyond my control. Life is entirely unpredictable, surprising, uncontrollable. "No good deed goes unpunished" is another corollary of the utter chaos, risk and unreliability of life. One day, (I was about 16 years old) the paranoid caddy master Bill left his candy store open and everyone...with one exception, my friend Web...helped themselves. Guess who Billy blamed for the theft? Yes: Web, the one who would not steal! But what is a "good decision" if it is not one with good consequences? A decision has to be good in two dimensions: the intention or motivation (will) and the thorough, accurate evaluation of available information (deliberation, practical intellect). Human motivation is complex, dense and multi-valent, but a moderately wholesome conscience recognizes when the intention is evil or good. The information piece is more problematic because as finite knowers we deliberate and decide under conditions of uncertainty, confusion, and fallibility. So the question in that regard is: Have we gathered all available information? Have we evaluated it as thoroughly as possible using all available resources within the time allowed? In the arenas of politics and diplomacy things become infinitely more complex: the decider (legislator, executor, voter) sorts through his own complicated/contradictory motives; responds to those of many others; anticipates consequences with endless uncertainty; but also receives disparate, inadequate, contradictory, erroneous and even mendaciously falacious information. Jimmy Carter was surely one of the best-motivated, intelligent (and detail-oriented) of our presidents. His presidency was not remarkable. The invasion of Iraq by George W. Bush did not satisfy my own high-bar criteria for a Just War, but was not such a bad decision. His intention is some combination of these: prevent development and use of weapons of mass destruction, humanitarian intervention, encourage democracy and thus stability in the Middle East, and protect supply of oil for developed economies. Those motivations are unobjectionable. The problem with the decision was the lack of information: Sadaam Hussein effectively bluffed everyone into thinking he had the WMDs and so the decision was based on defective information. Moving forward: Donald Trump, in regard to character (will, intention) and competence (deliberation over information) is almost certainly our worst president in history. It is hard to imagine a combination of such shallowness and incompetence. Even the great psychotic megalomanics of history (Mao, Stalin, Hitler, etc.) were markedly more evil in intent but showed great political competency. But again, irony upon irony, it seems increasingly possible...and greatly to be hoped for, in my view...that his dysfunctionality will bring good results deiplomatically and economically. (I give him full credit for a fine decision on Judge Gorsch.) This crazy, convoluted, irrational world of ours may very well benefit from his blatant egoism and mind-boggling incompetene! I'll drink to that! I'll pray for that!
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