Baring a supernatural intervention: No! No! No!
This for three reasons.
First, this Leo is not a world class theologian, intellectual, teacher. He is many splendid things that can make for a solid papacy: highly intelligent; holy, prayerful priest; servant of the poor; cosmopolitan in the best sense; competent administrator, canon lawyer, institutionalist; real listener to all; humble, modest, restrained, sober, judicial, prudent, cautious stabilizer, peacemaker, and unifier. To his credit, he loves Augustine and Pope Benedict. He seems to be little influenced by John Paul as he was already fervently engaged in his missionary work during that monumental papacy. He is quintessentially American: a pragmatist, no library rat or metaphysician. He resembles most of my own family and friends: heart of gold, competent man of action, compassionate and generous. His singular weakness: he is soft theologically, weak in intellectual (but not spiritual) clarity, depth and decisiveness. Like Francis, in contrast to John Paul and Benedict, he is temperamentally, psychologically, and theologically indisposed to confront the assault of the Sexual Revolution upon the family and the innocence of our young. With Francis, he would avoid this battle, failing, by omission, but not deliberately, in a modesty of weakness, to restrain the imperialistic aggression of the sexual liberationists.
Secondly, our world has become so explosive, dense, complex, confusing...AI, internet, energy, hostile imperialisms, environment, technocracy, gigantism, secularism, decline of Christendom and the family...that it is improbable that a document could accurately address them.
Lastly, it is an error to see the pope as teacher on the correct global political order. Catholic social teaching is a body of fluid moral principles that guide the laity in all the specific spheres of decision. It does not dictate policy, politics or ideology. In a camouflaged clericalism, Francis unhappily presented himself as world authority on prudential matters: immigration, war, energy, environment, and capital punishment. He became configured globally, by his progressive admirers, as the Anti-Trump. Leo has similar propensities.
We do not need a theological breakthrough, like Rerum, from Leo. We need steady governance. We need simple clarity on sexuality and restrain of the sexual liberationists of the European episcopacy. We need to stop abandoning the Chinese Church to the Communist Party. We need less accommodation; more clarity, courage, decisiveness.
God Gives Us What We Need...When We Need It
What we have...already given by God...is a magisterial body of teaching, starting with Rerum, through the Council and Humanae Vitae, into the Great Dual Pontificate and aspects of Francis.
If I were Leo, I would...
Not stress about the world order. I would delegate.
I would commission my six best theological bishops (young Turks like Varden and Barron as well as old guns like Mueller, Sarah, Zen, Scola) to dig deeply into the social teaching of Leo XIII through Francis to provide a clear, updated, simple statement addressing our current situation. This would clearly state Catholic understanding of: dignity of human life, sex/gender/family, solidarity, subsidiarity, all the freedoms starting with religion, the role of markets and the state, and more.
They would be served by a second commission of perhaps a dozen outstanding theologians or periti.
A third level of consultation might be a gathering of experts in specific fields who could show how Catholic thought impacts their areas. Included in this group would be some non-specialists, generalists: journalists or thinkers who merge familiarity with our faith with knowledge of our world condition.
Most importantly, each ordinary bishop of our 3,100 dioceses would find a suffering person, such as a paralyzed quadriplegic, unable to do anything but pray. These would be asked to pray for the fruitfulness of this mission.
What Do We Do in the Meantime?
Leo is unlikely to take this path. He will be an immense improvement on Francis but is unlikely to show the lucidity, courage, decisiveness we conservatives crave.
In the meantime, we always have...John Paul, Benedict and their interpretation of the Council; their retrieval of Tradition; their both critical and appreciative engagement with modernity.
During the dual-pontificate, many of us were so discouraged by the progressive drift of the Church that we leaned into a degree of ultramontanism, "papalodolatry." The papacy of Francis disabused us of this.
Happily, we now live in a more multipolar Church. We honor, love and obey Pope Leo as our Holy Father, and Vicar of Christ on earth, but we recognize his limitations. So we receive his teaching in a proper context. Christ with his Father is our King; Mary is our Queen; so we live in a Patriarchy/Matriarchy unlike any social order. Our greatest earthly authority is the lives, example, and teaching of the saints. Along with this we have Scripture/Tradition/Magisterium. At this point I suggest a certain binary Papacy: Leo is our now-Pope. But the teaching of John Paul and Benedict will guide us through the current century and beyond. We have, as well, guidance from bishops. And the intellectual and theological communities. So, we enjoy a multi-magisterium.
This will leave us with realistic expectations from this fine man who is now our pope. We will enjoy the multiple manners in which we are guided from heaven.
Come Holy Spirit, upon Pope Leo, and on all of us!
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